Frank Braun talks with Arto Bendiken about the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). How did we get here and what convinced us to prep. Paranoia, case fatality rates, and vaccines. Secondary and tertiary effects. Normalcy, authority, and confirmation bias. Subscribe Pocket Casts Spotify Stitcher Apple Podcasts Overcast Google Podcasts PlayerFM YouTube Show Notes Introduction 00:01:40 What set this whole thing in motion? Both Frank and Arto are already in lockdown mode, and prepared. It’s ~6 weeks since both of them started “buying some insurance”. Arto prepared for 11 people. 00:05:25 What made you think it’s going to be a big deal? (Risk assessment) Observations from Wuhan. Lessons from Spanish Influenza 1918-1920. High infectiousness, showing no symptoms while being infectious. People suddenly dropping in the streets. 00:08:00 Book: “The Great Influenza” Few media coverage on strange cases, like the woman dropping on the vegetable market. 2020, A strange year 00:09:10 First week of February: cancelling all travel plans (Arto Bendiken). 00:10:00 “An earthquake happened in Wuhan, and the tsunami will follow. It is hard to see the tsunami until it comes close to the shore, but it will follow.” (Arto citing Steve) 00:11:05 Analytical preparation, emotional process (fear) comes later. 00:11:40 Reactions by others: accusations of panicking. 00:12:03 Convincing others to prepare? 00:12:28 People buy insurance for things that are less likely to happen. 00:14:43 NN Taleb’s Tweet on Paranoia: “When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done.” - Not everyone takes action on something so far away. 00:15:40 Balaji S. Srinivasan’s Three categories of people: “1) Post-headline people: only believe things that are already in print 2) No filter people: forget it, they’ll believe anything :) 3) Pre-headline people: will listen to a rational argument and look at primary data”. 00:17:05 Authority bias: Credentials, degrees, other people’s opinion. 00:18:10 Talking to family and friends about situation when there was still time to prepare. 00:18:40 Cassandra Myth (Iliad) 00:19:15 Uniform set of responses: you’re panicking and making it worse, dismissal 00:19:53 Bill Gates warned about pandemics long ago, but was dismissed as a college dropout and IT guy. (Confirmation bias, ad hominem attack) 00:21:09 Bill Gates: “The most predictable disaster in the history of the human race”. 00:21:20 Albert Camus: T